← NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Wind Crux MageTier 2
at NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
decks
2
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
6-6-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.6%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
50.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1315
· median 1315
· range 1263–1368
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1193
Q3 1429
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 18.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.9% | +5.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.6% | -18.6 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Wind Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
